Shot Scope Case Study: Scoring in Relation to Par
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Shot Scope Case Study: Scoring in Relation to Par

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Shot Scope Case Study: Scoring in Relation to Par

Scoring in Relation to Par – Key Takeaways

  • For most golfers, Par 4s yield the highest average score relative to par
  • For most golfers, Par 5s yield the lowest average score relative to par

Improved Performance Through Data

Big data is a powerful tool. Not only does it allow golfers to assess individual parts of the game, but it provides an opportunity to examine performance from a variety of perspectives.

Golf stat-tracking and performance management companies like ShotScope help golfers better understand individual on-course performance. However, by aggregating data from golfers across the world, we get a more complete picture of the realities of amateur performance.

So, as we dive into a relatively straightforward topic, take a moment and think about where you find the most difficulty on the course. Does par make a difference in how you approach a hole?

Par 5 Scoring Average by Handicap

A chart showing Shot Scope Par 5 scoring averages

 

Observations

  • Par 5s are statistically the easiest holes on the course across all handicaps.
  • Par 5s often give golfers the best chance to make a birdie (or better).

Par 4 Scoring Average by Handicap

A chart showing Shot Scope Par 4 scoring averages

Observations

  • Par 4s show the biggest variation between handicaps. Shot Scope’s data shows a difference of 1.24 shots between a 2 and 26 handicap.
  • Higher handicap golfers, on average, have the most ability to improve on Par 4s.
  • In 2018-19, 17 of the 20 most difficult holes on the PGA Tour were Par 4s.

Par 3 Scoring Average by Handicap

A chart showing Shot Scope par 3 scoring averages

Observations

  • Par 3s generally only require one good shot to produce a score of par (or better).
  • Par 3s provide every golfer with an opportunity for golf’s most iconic result – a hole in one!
  • Check out a more in-depth Par 3 discussion in our previous Shot Scope case study.

How Do You Compare?

Do you score better or worse than the Shot Scope database averages?

What’s your biggest takeaway? Where is there room for improvement on the course in your game?

Post a comment below!

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Harry is the Senior Director of Product Testing, overseeing the facility and delving into everything Soft Goods related. His job is to cut through all the marketing and inform you, the consumer, what the best products are. Whether it be shoes, bags or gloves Harry has your back. Harry recently turned professional after being a two time All-American in golf and soccer. When he's not on the course, Harry loves to spend time with his lovely wife Miranda and dog Puma. #TruthDigest

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      Slinky

      4 years ago

      10 handicap currently

      Par 3 3.5
      Par 4 4.5
      Par 5 5.3

      Not a great driver been struggling to find the fairway from the tee but I’m about withing data

      Reply

      JH

      4 years ago

      Harry – careful using any handicap data from shotscope. If you guys have a contact there please talk to them. I’ve tried as a consumer but nothing. I’m not sure they even understand how handicaps are used based on the way they have it implemented in their system. I bought the V3. I like the hardware a lot. The data analysis and software need quite a bit of work.

      Handicaps are all self reported.
      It does not indicate if you should enter course handicap or index.
      It is used in the most visible section to users as a course handicap; in the explore section to show a net score.
      There is no place to enter course rating or slope for your tees so for that net score to be accurate it would have to be course hcp.
      An email to shotscope says they use it track users hcp in the system. Implying it is the index.

      The simple fix would be allow entry of rating and slope for the tees played so it could be used for the calculations. Strokes gained is a long way off if they can’t get this figured out.

      I like the hardware but hope they get the software figures figured out over time or find a partner like grint or someone to partner with for that part of it.

      Reply

      SV

      4 years ago

      Game Golf handicap: 6.1
      GHIN Index: 6.2

      I fall in line with scores listed, except for the par 5s. I think it is because my home course has one that is a card wrecker for most people.

      From Game Golf:

      Par 3: 3.48
      Par 4: 4.53
      Par 5: 5.38

      Reply

      Michael

      4 years ago

      par 3 3.6
      par 4 4.3
      par 5 5.0
      from my Arcos app for a GHIN 6.3

      Reply

      Terry

      4 years ago

      These appears to be very consistent with my numbers. as a 14-15.

      Reply

      Kevin Burns

      4 years ago

      Does this take into account tees played? I’d assume that makes a massive difference. If you take a standard 10+4+4 layout according to these stats a 2 handicapper shoots on average of 5.34 shots over par yet the 8 handicapper is shooting an average of 8.74 over par.

      These stats also tell us that a 20 handicapper on average shoots 20.86 over par, so yeah, these are nonsense.

      Reply

      HenkeBenke

      4 years ago

      Official Index 1..4, Arccos HCP +1.8

      Par 3; 3.3
      Par 4; 4.2
      Par 5; 4.8

      SG vs +4 HCP on approach shots, -2.0

      Reply

      Tony N

      4 years ago

      I’m a 17 HCP currently running at
      Par 3 = 3.86
      Par 4 = 4.91
      Par 5 = 5.83

      2 of our Par 5s are riddle with hazards, but the Par 5 that is Stroke index 1 I have Pared and Birdied the most of any other hole on the Course

      Reply

      Mark

      4 years ago

      12.5
      3-3.73
      4-4.94
      5-5.94

      Got to work harder

      Reply

      Ryan

      4 years ago

      What’s interesting to me is the scoring average for the 2 handicap appears to be much less consistent than the rest. I’d be interested to find out why that is…

      Reply

      Gene

      4 years ago

      I’m 71 and play a Par 3 Exec course with 2 Par 4’s. I’m a 3.9 against Par 56, average score 60, with an average of 30 putts a round.

      The reason I’m posting this is that on Par 72 courses, I’m a 15. By your numbers I can assume I’m playing exactly as your numbers indicate.

      Reply

      Jackie

      4 years ago

      Are these stats for men or men and women?

      Reply

      IEML

      4 years ago

      I guess that is data for men, however, would be interesting to see whether it makes a difference..

      Reply

      Jeff

      4 years ago

      Good sutff, Harry! Would also be interested to know if there’s a particular stroke each low-, mid-, high-handicapper tends to give away on each of various holes, i.e.,do we have a tendency to muff the tee shot on 5’s or long approach shots going for distance or on 3’s going for accuracy? Or are the up & down stokes (chip and putt) a nemesis on all holes for certain groups of golfers? I’m all of the above but just wondered if there is a general pattern. Good stuff!.

      Reply

      Lou

      4 years ago

      MGS is, basically, a website for low handicap golfers. They are the ones Harry, a +4 handicap, is writing for. The rest of us don’t count for much of what MGS concentrates on. All of these statistics correlate almost perfectly to the handicap one carries. If they didn’t there would be a big story here. But they do so none of this is a surprise.

      Reply

      Lance Matteo

      4 years ago

      I’m currently a 14 at 63 years old. I use to be an assistant in Florida years ago and played to around a 5-6 HC. Unfortunately, as I got older my work has gotten in the way of my golf game. The above stats look to be pretty much on the mark. Can’t improve only playing once a week. You can practice all you want, as I go and work at the range a few times a week, but you gotta get on the course! Less work more GOLF!!!

      Reply

      John

      4 years ago

      My course has 6 par 5s. For my handicap, I’m about .5 stroke above average. I’m losing about 3 strokes a round to par 5s. This may be reflective of the holes as they are the hardest holes on the course. Lots of hazards.. poor shots are definitely penalized. I could do a better job playing my misses.

      Reply

      Roger

      4 years ago

      Yet par 5’s are regularly listed on scorecards as the most difficult holes – i.e., their handicap numbers almost always rate par 5’s as the most difficult – par 3’s almost always rated as easier. What am I missing here?

      Reply

      Stephen

      4 years ago

      The handicap holes aren’t based on the absolute level of difficulty of each hole, but rather the relative difficulty between a scratch and a bogey golfer. That being said, as I commented below, this does show Par 5s with a 0.69 shot difference between a 2 handicap and a 20 is relatively more difficult than a par 3 with a 0.89 shot difference. Interesting!

      Reply

      stephen pearcy

      4 years ago

      Interesting results. The GHIN handicap is a formula based on average scores so, assuming, GHIN scores are honest, one should be able to determine their expected round score. As for 3,4,5 par holes individually there are GHIN stats for that as well. Though it is evident that individual hole scoring doesn’t’ exactly follow the GHIN pattern – which could (should?) impact how holes holes are nandicapped. As a complexity no one wants to see, there could be a separate hole handicap ranking depending on the golfer’s handicap. That sure would be messy!

      Reply

      Stephen

      4 years ago

      This is very interesting. If I use the data from the 2 and 20 handicap groups as a guide, it suggests the handicap holes on most courses are wrong. I believe the handicap holes are determined by relative difficulty for a scratch and a bogey golfer, and most times I see the lowest stroke holes are par fours and fives, not par threes. Very interesting

      Reply

      Mike

      4 years ago

      Does this take into account degree of difficulty of holes! Does it take into account the fact that a par-5 at my course for a 14 index (if you play the proper t’s) is 500 yd, for a 2 index, who probably plays longer tease, is 600 yds? Maybe I’m missing something in the interpretation here. So if I, as a 14 index, play 35 part fives against a two index, this data says over three holes he’ll beat me by one stroke? Maybe so if he’s playing the back t’s but no way if we’re playing the same t’s.

      Reply

      Bob

      4 years ago

      Harry,
      For me your opening comments:
      “For most golfers, Par 4s yield the highest average score relative to par
      For most golfers, Par 5s yield the lowest average score relative to par.”
      are fairly simple to explain and are spot on.
      I’m not a particularly long hitter.
      When on a par 4, I’m usually approaching the green with a mid-iron or hybrid, but on a par 5 I usually have a wedge in my hand. A much better chance at a GIR and making par.

      Reply

      Scotch - Canmore

      4 years ago

      Hacker from north of the border.
      Index has climbed to a 22 this year…. not good
      Par 3 = 4.3
      Par 4 = 5.8
      Par 5 = 7.0
      After a fitting, rec’d new T300s & a TS2 hybird 3 weeks ago.
      – 1″ shorter, 2deg flatter and dropped to reg flex from current sticks
      Hoping to reverse the trend once I get yardage ranges figured out.

      Reply

      DRusher101

      4 years ago

      Really need work on Par 5’s

      Par 3 3.4
      Par 4 4.6
      Par 5 5.8

      Reply

      mackdaddy9

      4 years ago

      What tee box I play on my home course can make a 3 club difference on the par 3s

      Reply

      James

      4 years ago

      Shotscope has an amazing capture system and this information is interesting, but pretty much useless. You need strokes gained data to actually tell you where you are gaining/losing strokes and what you should be working on…

      Reply

      Andy

      4 years ago

      4 hc

      3’s 3.47
      4’s 4.43
      5’s 5.12

      Reply

      Steven

      4 years ago

      Big take away is that I need to quit going for par 5s. My par average is way too based on my index. If I start being more conservative that should be corrected.

      Reply

      Don Cameron

      4 years ago

      Hola Amigos – very interesting data …. but what I’m wondering about in your data: What are the percentages of golfers at each handicap level? I would suspect that any golfer [ whatever their handicap] – would be very close to his or her average for scoring… How else would they achieve their score?

      Reply

      Matt Blankenship

      4 years ago

      Arrgh! Gotta work on my 3 wood. I screw up that fairway shot too often. I should rarely bogey a par 5 and yet… Gotta love golf!

      Index 1.8
      Par 3 3..1
      Par 4 4.2
      Par 5 5.1

      Reply

      Art Springsteen

      4 years ago

      Back in the day (like 10 yrs ago), when I had a 4 index, my par 5 performance was far better than now. I kept stats and it was right around 5.0 . I’m 72 now and have lost a lot of distance and am between a 7 and an 8 and my par 5 performance is in the 5.3 range. My performance on the par-3’s is a lot better, though. Back in my earlier days- like when I was 50, I maintained an index is the 1-2 range and was under par on par 5’s, but not so hot on par 3’s- probably in the 3.3-3.5 range.
      I am a bit surprised that higher handicappers do that well on par-5s. My experience is that hitting moire shots gives them a better opportunity to screw up!

      Reply

      Ernest

      4 years ago

      I’m a ShotScope user and I can’t even obtain these numbers from my “dashboard”.

      Reply

      John

      4 years ago

      Why not? Mine are displayed.

      Reply

      Ernest

      4 years ago

      Confirms my beliefs.
      Par 5 are the easiest, because you have more room for error. If you make a poor tee shot or 2nd, a lucky/good approach shot results in a 2 putt par.
      Par 3 are just as hard (.89 vs .96), because you need to be on your game, because a bad tee shot means you don’t have much chance to recover.

      Reply

      Ben

      4 years ago

      Index 0.2
      Par 3 3.4
      Par 4 4.4
      Par 5 4.9

      Based on that I’m about a 2 handicap, but this is from my last 20 rounds which includes about 10 rounds on Bethpage Black from the Blue tees (which is rated a 77.5)

      Reply

      Daniel

      4 years ago

      This season from about August on from my Shotscope v3
      Par 3: 3.72
      Par 4: 4.69
      Par 5: 5.32

      I have been using a Handicap tracking site and my own spreadsheets to determine I’m around a 14 Handicap so these seem to line up pretty well. Having the data is really starting to help and now that I have a few rounds in the system. already changing tactics on certain holes to play more to my strengths and have better misses. Great stuff.

      Reply

      Joe

      4 years ago

      First year back to golf after almost 15 years away from the game. When I was younger I was a 12-15hcp, now for this season I am floating around a 20.

      Hdcp: 20
      Par 3: (3.74) Below
      Par 4: (5.6) Above
      Par 5: (6.5) Above

      My big takeaway is I need to get a driver fit to me. I have one I bought used, but it produces meh – AVG results at best. I also need to get some woods or a stronger hybrid. I know long game kills me. This confirms it. I could shave a handful of strokes if I could hit drives better and better wood/2nd shots.

      Reply

      Jon Silverberg

      4 years ago

      I wonder if handicap index is the right comparison. I think average course handicap might be better. For example, I’m a 10.2 at the moment, but my course handicap on a course I often play (Bethpage Red, white tees) is 13…My guess is that my averages would be expected to be a little better than a 14 rather than somewhat worse than an 8.

      Reply

      Tom R

      4 years ago

      Index: 6.0
      Par 3s – 3.36
      Par 4s – 4.48
      Par 5s – 5.05

      Reply

      PBC

      4 years ago

      Par 3’s tend to be the more costly for lower HCPs. Mine are the following:
      Par 3 – 3.14
      Par 4 – 4.05
      Par 5 – 4.66

      Reply

      Rob

      4 years ago

      Do the stats take into account the total number of times each type of hole is played? What I mean is there are usually (4) par 3 holes and (4) par 5 holes on a golf course and (10) par 4’s. This means that players play more par 4 holes than 3’s or 5’s so the data set for number of par 4’s played would be higher. If you equalize the sample sizes for par 3’s, par 4’s and par 5’s, do the numbers stay the same?

      Reply

      Bob

      4 years ago

      Looked at my profile on Free Golf Tracker:

      Par 3 Avg: 3.89

      Par 4 Avg: 4.93

      Par 5 Avg: 5.26

      Struck by how average my game is.

      Reply

      Jack B.

      4 years ago

      I laughed at your comment. On the bright side, if you are 14 handicap you are better than the average golfer IMHO.

      Reply

      ex007

      4 years ago

      Sort of close. Per GHIN stats:

      Index 2.4
      Par 3 3.06
      Par 4 4.13
      Par 5 5.04

      Reply

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