For many of us, there are one or two guys we’d rather not play with. For whatever reason, we just seem to play worse when paired with them. Someone I used to play with was a great guy but EVERY time we played together, I scuzzed it all over the course. Would it surprise you to learn that tour players deal with the same issue?
Last week, Bubba Watson was asked if it mattered with whom he played for the first two rounds.
“It matters tremendously. There’s guys that are a shot, maybe a two-shot, penalty when you see their name on that sheet. Maybe that’s what they say about me, too, so I guess it works both ways.” – Bubba Watson
I was curious if this could be quantified. Are there some players whose presence in a group causes others to play worse? Are there some that have the opposite effect and bring out the best in their playing partners?
Was it as challenging to play with Tiger in the fourth round as the commentators would have us believe?
Doing the Math
To find the answers, I compared a player’s strokes-gained total for each round with their prior 20-round average.
A Brief Overview of Strokes Gained Total
For each round, a player's score is compared to the average score that day. For example, a player shoots 70 on a day when 71.2 was the average score for the entire field. That player would have a strokes gained total of +1.2 (71.2 – 70 = +1.2). Another player shoots 72 on that same day. That player would have a strokes gained total of -0.8 (71.2 – 72 = -0.8).
For every round played, I calculated the average strokes-gained total for a player’s prior 20 rounds. That average was then compared to the strokes gained total in their “current round.”
Let’s say a player’s 20-round average was +1.45. In their next round, they are paired with Tiger and gain +0.20 strokes. We compare strokes-gained total from that round (+0.20) to the average of the prior 20 (+1.45).
0.20 – 1.45 = -1.25
In the most recent round with Tiger, the player performed -1.25 strokes worse than their prior 20-round average. Sticking with Tiger as our target player, we do this same calculation for all his playing partners for all his rounds. We then average those strokes-gained differences.
It’s a reasonable assumption that a multitude of factors influences who plays better or worse with a particular player. I cannot imagine trying to play against the backdrop of the galleries that follow Tiger.
I spoke with former PGA TOUR player and two-time winner Rick Fehr. He deserves the credit for coming up with a catchy name for this statistical category: “Strokes-Gained Playing Partner.”
And now the results!
First and Second Rounds Only
Playing Partners Play Worse
These are the top 10 players whose playing partners play worse than they normally do. This is from 2015 to 2020 for the first and second rounds (Minimum 200 playing partners).
Playing Partners Play Better
These are the top 10 players whose playing partners play better than they normally do. This is from 2015 to 2020 for the first and second rounds (Minimum 200 playing partners).
All Rounds
Playing Partners Play Worse
These are the top 10 players whose playing partners play worse than they normally do. This is from 2015 to 2020 for ALL rounds (Minimum 300 playing partners).
Playing Partners Play Better
These are the top 10 players whose playing partners play better than they normally do. This is from 2015 to 2020 for ALL rounds (Minimum 300 playing partners).
Fourth Round Only
This last look is at players in the fourth round only. The data is from 2004 through 2020 (Minimum 175 fourth rounds). It appears playing with Tiger in the fourth round was a difficult thing to do!
The commentators are right. Being paired with Tiger on a Sunday is effectively a one-stroke penalty.
Submit Your Ideas
Got an idea for a story driven by tour data? Let us know in the comment section below.
Maj Mike
2 years agoExcellent charts and I noted several slow players showed up on strokes lost. Slow play is the bane of both the pros and us hackers. Your ability to stay focused is directly correlated to the time span of having to maintain your focus. Slow play impacts your tempo. The golf course loose revenue through disgruntled players not returning. The worst part is that the golf’s ruling bodies and courses just keep giving lip service in the USA. Time clocks should be on the first and 10th tee. If your group is over 1hr 45 minutes then you must skip the 10th. Your group would then be on probation and if they do it on the back nine then they could not book tee times before noon. Lately, I have been booking earliest tee times and our group gets around in less than 3 hours.
Phillip T
2 years agoInformative article. Playing partners definitely effect performance. Recently played with fast 18 handicap golfers with great etiquette & shot +9 round. I’m a 14 handicap who mostly plays with poor etiquette golfers
NCDuffer
2 years agoAwesome.. Simply awesome. Thank you Lou and Mygolfspy..
MaxE
2 years agoI agree that the level of play can (in)directly affect your play depending on who you are playing. I experienced this on Tuesday and today. Played some of the best golf on Tuesday as I was partnered with a skilled player who played quickly and didn’t waste their time getting prepared to hit their ball. Today, was the complete opposite. Slow players, unecessary movements/chatter while getting ready to hit the ball, unprepared to play “Ready-Play” golf, rarely going to your own ball to be prepared to play, multiple “Mulligans”, etc.
TonyG
2 years agoLove to see stats for the group ahead of Tiger. I have heard players complain about crowd movement in the past. Everyone is rushing ahead to get a good spot to watch Tiger on the next hole.
Waazzupppp
2 years agoI have to admit that when I started reading this, I pretty much was thinking that it had to be a slow news day in the golf world…
Then I started getting into it and realized it had to be a slow 3 months in the news department to put this study together.
After finishing it, I have to applaud Lou for this brilliant look at the life of a tour professional. I mean to know that playing Tiger in the 4th round of a tourney is going to cost you a stroke right off the bat shows just how powerful his presence is (was) on the game of golf. To know that certain players – even if they are one of the best guys on the planet to play with – could cost you a stroke a tournament, is more than a bit mind blowing. I think of Streelman’s one shot second place and cringe even more now thinking that if he had played with ________ that he may not have lost that shot and we would have had a different outcome.
Great stuff and completely out of the box for what I expected going in. Well done Lou and MGS!!!
Sean
2 years agoI totally agree with the above statement! I said the same thing in my head lol
Mike D
2 years agoLove the new stat analysis, and it’s a very interesting topic, and especially with some guys coming out and saying they dislike certain playing partners, it’s timely analysis. There are a couple things that I think should be considered here to try to enhance it or eliminate some potential trend bias (e.g. is the player just on an upswing or coming to mid-season form?):
(1) Instead of last 20, look at last 10 and next 10. This eliminates factors such as being on a hot streak and/or in a slump for a few rounds.
(2) In your last 20, are you excluding rounds where they also played with that person? For example, if they play with Tiger on Th-F, does the F stat’s “last 20” exclude the Th round? Excluding that round would differentiate between “with Tiger” and “without Tiger”.
Mike Mc
2 years agoCompletely agree! And an even better write up.
To one commenter’s point, I’d be curious to see the avg pace of play numbers for those in each group. At the same time, there is something to be said when we ‘play down to the level of our competition’ or ‘play up to their level’ … and I’m guilty of that, and it drives my crazy when I do the ‘play down’ portion too often.
If I could pick an additional 3 pros to play with, it’d be Couples, Fowler and Mickelson/Els as the final toss up.
Jeff Gren
2 years agoLong time follow on twitter, always great to read anything Lou does. Period.
Deon du Plessis
2 years agoI’m gonna call BS on this one, specifically because of Louis. I have followed Louis in multiple rounds at multiple events.. I have never seen any frustration or any indication from his group that he is in any way a negative for the group. I am sure there are players people don’t want to be grouped with…. but Louis is not one of those.
James
2 years ago2 things:
You missed the point of the article, he’s not saying people don’t like playing with Louis, he’s saying people score worse when playing with Louis. Read the paragraph that starts “For many of us,…”
Even if it was the case that players liked or disliked Louis, I believe you would have an argument to say that less than half a stroke gained is not a significant number over 36 holes (140 strokes or so). I would disagree due to the reasonable dataset, but you might want to make that argument.
TonyG
2 years agoLouis is an odd one. You would think just watching the smooth swing and calm demeanor would help anyone’s game.
James
2 years agoHi Lou, this is very interesting. I actually looked at this a few months ago (lockdown boredom) for all.the info I could extract from the pga and European tour websites. One of the most interesting things I found was that SG total was normally distributed for round 1 and 2 and for round 3 and.4 was binomial (I obviously removed the non-cut makers from my data). I would be interested to know if you found anything similar?
Luis Ramírez
2 years agoYou left out who you play better on a Sunday. Can you share that one?
Bob Pegram
2 years agoI agree. I was looking forward to scrolling down to that one, but it wasn’t there. I wonder if it was an oversight.
Bruce
2 years agoYep, there are guys that you look forward to playing with and then there are those that you are paired with and you think, this would have been a great day to get my colon scoped
Dr Strangelove
2 years agoI’m curious if there is a trend of the Play Worse or Play Faster guys being slow or fast compared to the average player.
Jimmy
2 years agoAbsolutely. On the play-worse list, everyone is slow from the top of the list until you get to Koepka. Brooks might be on the list because he’s very fast & known to pressure slower guys to hurry up.
Another possible factor is length. Hitting your second shot first is an information disadvantage. I play my best rounds with semi-fast players who are shorter drivers than me.
1plane
2 years agoThat‘s a load pf crap… McIlroy is one of the quickest players and Stenson isn‘t slow at all.