W|A|M RANKINGS: PGA Championship Edition

The final Major of the season provides another opportunity to put the Woodstock Analytics Machine to the test.

Before we get to this week’s predictions, let’s take a look at how our predictions fared last time around.

W|A|M vs. The Open

For the Open Championship, the WAM (“The Machine”) highlighted five players who could leave Royal Troon with the title of Champion Golfer of the Year. All five of those players made the cut, and Henrik Stenson (The Machine’s #5) won the tournament. Phil Mickelson, who finished a strong second at Troon, was #10 in the WAM Rankings.

Let’s take a look at how the WAM Rankings compared to the full list of Top 10 finishers at The Open Championship.

Here are some additional WAM highlights from the Open Championship:

• Predicted 71 of the 81 players to make the cut
• Had the player ranked within ten places of where they finished on the leaderboard 33 times (ex. Lee Westwood was T43 at Troon and was 49 on our list)
• Only 1 player from WAM’s Top 10 missed the cut (former Open Champ Louis Oosthuizen)

That’s a solid showing for sure, so we’re turning the machine loose for this week’s PGA Championship at Baltusrol.

About Our Analytics

The algorithm is structured the same way as last time, but as we mentioned ahead of The Open, the machine does adapt to the location of the tournament (among other variables). Here’s a brief rundown of how The Machine arrives at its rankings.

• Stats Ranking – First we consider the obvious stuff. We generate a rating based on Strokes Gained Putting, Driving Distance, Sand Save Percentage and several other PGA Tour statistics.
• Past Play – While the stats are important, trends show that a golfer is more likely to play well when he’s in good form. We also consider whether or not the course suits a given player’s style and eye. This ranking is based on past performances from similar courses.
  *For example, Congressional – the venue of the 2011 U.S. Open – is similar to Baltusrol because of the penalizing fairway bunkering that is able to be avoided with sheer length. Any player who can carry the ball 300 plus yards will find the driving area to be slightly wider.
• Proprietary Analytics – The final part of the algorithm is entirely proprietary. It’s the secret that brings this all together, and sorry, we’re not sharing.

Top 5 for the PGA Championship

We’ve plugged in the numbers for the field into the machine. Based on its calculations, here are the golfers most likely to win the 2016 PGA Championship:

Jason Day

The defending PGA Champion and current World #1 would is nearly a no-brainer even without WAM’s expertise. Above and beyond that, the Australian’s putting stats and monster carry numbers make him the favorite. His average finish of 13th in Majors this year adds further credibility to an already impressive resume. Day would love to beat his peers in the final major of the year to retain both his Wanamaker Trophy and his #1 Official World Golf Ranking.

Adam Scott

Scott sits only a spot away from where he sat for WAM’s ranking at Troon, and after a 43rd place finish at the Open the Aussie will look to rebound. Fortunately for Scott, his ball striking numbers from 175-225 yards are the best on tour. Baltusrol will test the player’s long iron game, and if the former major champion gets in contention he has the past experience to manage the pressure.

Charl Schwartzel

The former Masters champion seems to have fallen off a lot of golf fans’ radars, but Schwartzel has shown promise as of late. He ranks in the Top 5 of our Stats Ranking thanks to high finishes in Proximity to the Hole from 175-225 yards, Driving Distance, and Strokes Gained on Approach. A recent string of good play combined with above average finishes in the Majors in 2016 make Schwartzel a solid contender.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar made some big numbers at Troon that hurt his chance at hoisting the Claret Jug. Because of his tee times during the tournament, he also saw the worst weather Scotland had to offer. The weather in New Jersey looks more promising, so look for Kuchar to be there come Sunday. He did just record a T-9 finish at the RBC Canadian Open, and the warm temperatures expected at Baltusrol could help his below-average driving distance just enough to push him to the top.

Rory McIlroy

The decimation of the field that was Congressional (the course WAM rates as most similar to Baltusrol) in 2011 could very well repeat itself this week. The Irish phenom sits fourth in our Stats Ranking thanks to his large carry distance and his obscene birdie conversion rate from 175-200 yards. On a golf course where WAM calculates those stats to be the most important, McIlroy is sure to be dangerous. With five top 5’s in his last seven starts, McIlroy is showing the form needed to return to his Major winning ways.

Dark Horse Picks

Our dark horses are players that the Machine predicts will over-perform relative to his Official World Golf Ranking. Here are the Top 3 choices.

Jim Furyk

The now 46 year-old is a former major champion that has had his share of Major Championship heartbreak over the last five years. On a long tight course lined with bunkers, a player like Furyk who has good numbers scrambling from greenside bunkers, top numbers on tour in Proximity to the Hole from fairway bunkers, and an above average Birdie Conversion Percentage from 175-200 yards is likely to shine. He is also coming off a 13th place finish in Canada last weekend, so his game is in good-enough shape to factor.

Kevin Na

The second short hitter to make the list Na actually ranks 10th on Tour in Average Finish in the first three Majors of the year. While Baltusrol’s lower course is not similar to the other three Major venues, the pressures of Major Championship golf are the same everywhere, so his past success should mean only positive things. Na’s only red flags are in Driving Distance (which is fine as long as he hits it straight and plays well from 175-225 yards) and his Sand Save Percentage. Fortunately he ranks 9th on Tour in Strokes Gained on Approach, and is above average in all stats from 175-225 yards. Look for the fidgety Na to conquer his tick and contend come Sunday afternoon.

Tyrrell Hatton

Coming off a 5th place finish at Troon and a solo 2nd the week before at the Scottish Open, the Englishmen is undoubtedly in form. A below average Sand Save Percentage is really his only drawback. His T7 at Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship – the European Tour’s flagship event – shows Hatton can play a course similar to Baltusrol.

The Top 50

Because you asked for it, the chart below contains the W|A|M’s Top 50 Rankings for the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol. If you don’t feel like scrolling, you can search by player name.