This is a short article with a simple point to make.
Scottie Scheffler, a winner again this past Sunday at The American Express, is playing, to put it lightly, phenomenal golf. It’s clearly the best golf we have seen since Tiger.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He’s not Tiger. Not even close.
Scheffler is doing some special things
The comparisons between the two have ramped up since Scheffler became the second-youngest (and second-fastest) to reach 20 PGA Tour victories, all of which have come in his last 81 starts. Oddly, Scheffler had no victories in his first 70 starts.
I’m no math wizard but that means he has been winning about a quarter of the time since his first victory, a ridiculous rate.
His stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking is also remarkable. The OWGR average point differential between Scheffler at No. 1 and Rory McIlroy at No. 2 is currently the same as the differential between McIlroy and a guy named Kyungnam Kang, who’s ranked 677th.
Scheffler is embarking on his 142nd consecutive week at No. 1. It’s mathematically impossible for him to give up that spot any time in the next couple of months.
At 29 years old, Scheffler is definitely on his way to being among the best golfers to ever live.
But Tiger’s record outpaces him by a wide margin
I enter into the record, for your consideration, this career wins chart from our friends at Data Golf. Tiger is the purple line and Scheffler is the red line.
Holy mother of pearl! Through 151 starts (which Scheffler just completed), Woods had already won 38 times. That is more than 25 percent of all his starts.
Scheffler, with his slow start, has only won 13 percent of the time.
This is a pretty sizable gap here.
Now, let’s double the amount of starts to 302. Tiger, incredibly, won 78 times in that timespan which is good for a 25.8 percent win total.
That means Scheffler would have to win 58 more times in the next 151 starts. That amount of starts works out to roughly seven seasons of golf so we’re talking about eight wins per season.
At the rate Scheffler has been gobbling up victories, this is entirely possible. But he will still have to play at this incredible level (and perhaps even better) over the long term, all while avoiding injury.
If you consider majors, Tiger had 10 majors before the age of 30. Scheffler has four majors and turns 30 this June.
And remember that stranglehold on No. 1 in the world? Scheffler is only halfway to Tiger’s record of 281 consecutive weeks at No. 1 (it should be noted that Tiger also had a separate streak of 264 straight weeks at the top).
Now let’s take a look at Strokes Gained, which is simply a measure of how good each player was against their competition. The number reflects by how many strokes they beat the field per round.
This is closer than the career victories but Tiger still crushes Scottie.
Through 151 starts, Tiger gained 2.78 shots per round. Scottie gains 2.17 shots per round.
It’s within the same neighborhood but not exactly shouting distance.
A couple caveats to all of this
While Tiger’s greatness is in a completely different category than Scheffler’s, there are a couple of points worth noting.
One is the era they played in. Woods dominated in a period where the equipment was less advanced so it was perhaps easier to distance himself from the herd. Modern equipment kind of brings everyone closer together so it’s impressive Scheffler can separate as much as he has.
The other is longevity. Woods was sublime for some 15 years but then fell off a cliff because of injuries.
Let’s say Scheffler plays at a steadier (and still productive) pace until he is 45, another 15 years of golf.
He would need only about four wins per year to reach Tiger’s career mark of 82 victories.
Scheffler could also win one major in three-quarters of those 15 seasons and reach Woods in the major win category.
So while it’s likely Scheffler never burns as brightly as Tiger once did, his career achievements are still within the realm of possibility.
That, in and of itself, is amazing.
Top Photo Caption: Scheffler has a ways to go before reaching Tiger’s records. (GETTY IMAGES/David Cannon)
Kevin
5 months ago
One thing that’s not mentioned and can be difficult to take into account is the level of competition that each have faced. There was an explosion in golf participation a few decades ago, especially amongst juniors, and much due to Tiger. This, along with the tour being more of an “international tour” today, has led to stiffer competition that Scheffler is facing. 12 of the first 18 winners last year were international players. Not claiming that the top 2 or 3 players are necessarily better today, but the 15th or 30th and so on best players are much better today than 2 and a half decades ago. The scoring parity on tour between the top (excluding Scheffler) mid, and bottom players is far closer today than it was 25+years ago, when Tiger first started to dominate. Today, the 90th best scoring average is the same distance to the 10th best as the 50th was to the 10th best from 25 years ago. The same argument can be made when comparing Tiger and Jack. A mere 3 or so million Americans were playing the game of golf when Jack took it up as a child. Tiger had to deal with more legitimate players than Jack and Scheffler has had to deal with more legitimate players than Tiger. There’s only 3 men that are under the age of 50 that are in the top 50 all time win list. It’s become harder to dominate and win consistently over the decades. I don’t foresee that changing much in the future unless the participation numbers go down.