The Open Championship: Power Rankings, Gambling Odds And Favorite Bets

For each PGA Tour signature event and major, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.

This week, the Tour heads to Southport, England, for The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. 

• Date: July 16-19, 2026
• Location: Southport, England
• Course: Royal Birkdale Golf Club
• How to watch: NBC, USA, Peacock
• Purse: $17,000,000
• Defending champ: Scottie Scheffler

Which skills the course rewards

Royal Birkdale was founded in 1889 and primarily designed by Frederick G. Hawtree and J.H. Taylor. Mackenzie & Ebert, the firm that has worked on all Open rota courses, did a significant renovation in 2023 to prepare for this year’s Open Championship.

It will play as a par 70 at more than 7,200 yards, making it a longer course for Open Championship standards. Both par 5’s are on the back nine and very gettable, while the course has a diverse set of par 3s and plenty of difficult par 4s. 

The difficulty of Opens at Birkdale have largely been dependent on weather, but it’s still one of the toughest tests in the Open rota. Jordan Spieth reached 12-under in 2017 with fairly easy conditions and a third round that gave up a record-breaking 62 from Brendan Grace. Padraig Harrington won at 3-over in 2008 by four shots during a week that saw terrible weather and brutal conditions. Mark O’Meara also only managed even-par in 1998. 

This week, we should expect an extremely firm and fast golf course due to the hot and dry weather in England over the past few weeks. But winds are expected to be fairly tame, which should overall create a fair but difficult challenge for the world’s best. 

At Birkdale, I’m primarily looking at strong, accurate drivers of the ball and elite short-grass scramblers, along with the usual preference of elite iron play. Birkdale’s fairways can be tough to hit and feature narrowing short grass around the yardage many players hit their driver. Those who can be aggressive can cut off the distance on a lot of these par 4’s, but the firm conditions will make it tough to do so accurately. Birkdale has favored accuracy off the tee, so any players who can combine distance with that will obviously have a great advantage. 

Birkdale also has very tricky green complexes with short-grass runoffs all around them. It should come as no surprise then that Spieth and Harrington took down the last two Opens here, considering they were possibly the best in the game at the time at creative scrambling. 

With firm conditions expected, players who can flight their ball multiple ways and work it in both high and low should be at an advantage. The R&A will be able to cut the greens a little shorter than many years due to the expected low winds. 

How the model works

The weighted model this week over the last 36 rounds is 20% SG: Approach, 15% SG: Off the Tee, 15% SG: Total (Links), 10% SG: Around the Green, 10% scrambling (short grass), 10% greens in regulation %, 10% distance from edge of fairway, and 10% SG: Putting.

Power rankings

(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)

10. Tom Kim (+5900, +880, +405)

Model rank: 16^th

This checks all the boxes. Kim won last week in Scotland, which makes it five straight top-17 finishes in that tournament. He was 3^rd at the U.S. Open, and he also finished runner-up in the 2023 Open Championship. Kim has been trending upward for a while now, and he always seems to enjoy links golf. His iron play has been elite lately, and the scrambling is also superb. Ranks 2^nd in SG: APP. 

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9. Russell Henley (+5200, +750, +340)

Model rank: 11^th

Henley has been struggling with his short game for whatever reason as of late, but I’d expect that to turn around soon. He’s always been great scrambling from short grass, and Henley is a very accurate driver of the ball who can get scorching hot with his irons at any moment. He’s finished 5^th and T10 at the last two Opens. Ranks 4^th in DFEF. 

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8. Jon Rahm (+1850, +345, +174)

Model rank: 5^th

I’m struggling with how to grade Rahm this week. At a quick look, he checks the boxes statistically and is one of the best players in the world. But the recent form is not ideal—especially the irons last week in Scotland in a rare chance to tee it up with PGA Tour players. He also missed the cut at Shinnecock. But Rahm has been in the mix consistently at The Open and could surely contend again. Ranks 4^th in SG: OTT. 

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7. Xander Schauffele (+2500, +445, +220)

Model rank: 3^rd

Schauffele is another top player coming in poor form after struggling at the Travelers and Scottish Open. His iron play was a disaster in both starts, as was much of the bag. But Schauffele tends to always bring it for major championships, and The Open has been no different. He won in 2024 and defended with a solid T7 last year. He also had a valuable T20 at Birkdale as a debutant in 2017. Ranks 1^st in SG: TOT (Links). 

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6. Tyrrell Hatton (+3600, +590, +285)

Model rank: 8^th

Hatton has a pair of great runs at majors this year, with a T3 at the Masters and T7 at the U.S. Open. He didn’t hit it well at the Scottish last week but had a hot putter to manage a T17. I’ve always felt like Hatton would win an Open, as he’s been solid here throughout his career. Birkdale is the type of fair test that will fit better with his temperament as well. Ranks 9^th in SG: APP. 

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5. Cameron Young (+3100, +530, +260)

Model rank: 7^th

Young hasn’t exactly had his best stuff since that incredible stretch through the Cadillac Championship in May. The putter has completely cooled off, which was always expected, but maybe not this drastically. His ball striking has also cooled down as well but not in a concerning way. Young started his Open career with a runner-up and a T8 in 2023 but missed the cut at Royal Portrush last year. Ranks 12^th in SG: OTT. 

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4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1850, +335, +166)

Model rank: 9^th

Shockingly, Fitzpatrick managed his first finish better than 20^th at The Open last year with a T4 at Portrush. It’s a bit concerning that he hasn’t managed much in this championship, but it doesn’t make any sense. I expect Fitzpatrick to find his way in the mix more often now at The Open, and Birkdale seems like the right spot considering he’s been one of the game’s top few players throughout 2026. Ranks 2^nd in SG: ARG. 

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3. Tommy Fleetwood (+1800, +325, +160)

Model rank: 4^th

It could be a magical week for Fleetwood in his hometown. The Southport native played decently here in 2017, but he’s added three top-10’s in the Open since, and he’s coming in with fantastic form of five straight finishes of T14 or better. Fleetwood is one of the most balanced players on Tour and should be in the mix if his iron play is strong. Ranks 11^th in SG: ARG. 

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2. Rory McIlroy (+850, +184, -104)

Model rank: 2^nd

McIlroy had a nice prep week in Scotland with a T7 finish despite struggling with his approach play. The driver could be a real weapon at Birkdale if he’s hitting it straight, as he could cut off a ton of distance on some of the par-4’s and give himself more wedges than most. He was T4 here in 2017 and would surely like to add another Open after winning his last in 2014. 

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1. Scottie Scheffler (+620, +132, -146)

Model rank: 1^st

I’m still not panicking. Scheffler missed his first cut since 2022 last week at the Scottish Open. I almost think it may have been a good thing for the defending champion. Scheffler got to Birkdale earlier than expected to work on his game, and perhaps it could help him manage a better start than he’s had in most tournaments this year. Scheffler still easily grades out No. 1 in the model, and he’s finished 2^nd, T14 and T4 at the three majors this year. Ranks 1^st in SG: APP.

Top Photo Caption: Royal Birkdale is ready for the Open Championship. (GETTY IMAGES/Michael Reaves)