Why These Five Players Won’t Win The Open Championship

Coming off a successful U.S. Open, I’m back in the game with picking five favorites who won’t win this week’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.

Last month, I chose these five top players to not claim victory at Shinnecock. Here is where they finished.

• Bryson DeChambeau (MC)

• Ludvig Aberg (T17)

• Xander Schauffele (T11)

• Tommy Fleetwood (T11)

• Brooks Koepka (MC)

Fly the banner! Not a single top-10 finish and two missed cuts. That makes up for me saying Rory wasn’t going to win the Masters.

Now we’re headed to the last major of the year. The pressure is on, baby.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+700)

Go big or go home.

Scheffler is either the No. 1 or No. 2 name on the board depending on where you check but I’m off him this week.

Look, it’s just been one of those years for the world’s top-ranked player. Despite only winning one time, he’s actually been the best player on a week-to-week basis given his consistency (nine top-five finishes). For whatever reason, the wins haven’t been coming. And, given his stature, that is a failure of a season for him.

After seeing him miss the cut at the Scottish Open—his first missed cut in almost four years—it doesn’t seem like the vibes are right for Scheffler to salvage his year with a major victory.

My sense? Expect Scheffler to come back hungry with multiple major wins in 2027.

2. Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)

The home-game models are buzzing this week as Fleetwood has immense local knowledge of Birkdale. The crowds will be cheering him on more than any other player in the field.

I’m just not buying stock.

First off, that’s a lot of pressure. Players rarely perform well in that type of environment as we’ve seen with McIlroy struggling at Royal Portrush in the past.

Secondly, Fleetwood has been a little uninspiring this year. No victories and his major championship results are T33-MC-T11.

He’s been gobbling up top-15 results (nine of them) but you could argue he hasn’t put himself in contention a single time the entire season. He’s had some great finishes in The Open (runner-up in 2019, T4 in 2022) but was never really a threat to win either of those given how far back he was of the eventual champion.

I’ll be rooting for him because I’m a huge fan and it would be a great story but I don’t feel like this one is happening.

3. Ludvig Aberg (+2200)

Nope, we’re not doing this again.

I love Aberg. I covered him while he was at Texas Tech. Incredibly kind and chill dude. I always root for him.

But let’s be honest—he is still learning how to close off tournaments, his short game is unreliable and he has no evidence of success in two starts at The Open (MC-T23).

Aberg’s last victory was 17 months ago. He has a handful of top-five finishes this season but there is definitely some scar tissue when it comes to meaningful golf on Sunday. We’ve seen that repeatedly.

I still believe in him. I think his game will evolve over time.

It’s just not going to be this week.

4. Collin Morikawa (+2700)

Morikawa won the 2021 Open Championship in benign conditions on a course that is the least linksy of the Open rota.

Since then, he has gone MC-MC-T16-MC at The Open.

Despite being in solid form this year, I still don’t fully trust him when conditions become a factor.

For that reason, I am out on Morikawa.

5. Cameron Young (+3000)

This is a bit of a risky pick given how Young has broken out this season with two huge victories and a T3 in the Masters.

I’ll also note that Young has some solid results in Open Championships. He came close in 2022 at St Andrews and had a T8 in 2023 as well.

But I’m looking at how his summer has gone so far … and I’m not liking what I’m seeing (T26-T46-T43-T47). He also decided to skip the Scottish Open, a move I’m not in love with.

Young has shown to be incredibly streaky the past few years. He’ll go nuclear for a stretch and then cool off for a stretch.

I’m betting on him to stay cold this week.

Five players I do like this week

Someone mentioned in a previous post like this that I have to give a few names I like.

Fair enough!

Here are five players I am backing this week.

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1500) — He’s playing outstanding golf this season (No. 4 in Data Golf). He feels like a two-major player. Also coming off a T4 at last year’s Open Championship.

• Rory McIlroy (+700) — No big splash here but McIlroy turned his play around at the Scottish Open and I feel like he is highly motivated to add to his major record while he is still in this window of prime golf.

• Sam Burns (+4000) — A bit of a flyer here since Burns has a horrid Open Championship record. He’s up to No. 6 in Data Golf, almost won the U.S. Open and is starting to show himself as a player who isn’t afraid of majors.

• Justin Rose (+2700) — I would die and go to heaven. Birkdale is where Rose came onto the scene as young lad back in 1998. What a story this would be for him to come back nearly 30 years later and win a Claret Jug. He’s been involved in all three majors this year (T3-T10-T11).

• Xander Schauffele (+2000) — While it’s not sexy, Schauffele has proven over and over that he can show up to majors (T9-T7-T11) this year. His Open Championship record is stellar. The prudent bet would be for a top-five or top-10 finish.

Who do you like this week? Who do you hate? Let me know below in the comments.