With Rory McIlroy winning the Masters and becoming the first player since Tiger Woods to complete the career Grand Slam, that pursuit of capturing all four majors has been on our minds lately.
McIlroy is just the sixth man in history to accomplish the feat. Doing so puts him in rarefied air in terms of the greatest golfers to ever live, and there is even a case he could be included in the top 10 on that list.
An interesting question we have been asking is: Who will be next to join McIlroy?
Last July, I speculated that only two players from this era of players will get there. I didn’t pick the right guys, apparently, as I said McIlroy would never win the Masters. Oops.
However, there is still time for guys like Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.
Taking a look at the odds
Instead of guessing, let’s see what Vegas has to say about everyone’s chances to complete the career Grand Slam (odds courtesy our friends at BetCarolina).
Now, your initial thought would probably be that Jordan Spieth has the best odds. He is one major away—Spieth just needs the PGA Championship which is being played this week. And he has been beefing up on sponsor exemption invites into signature events, so he should be prepared to play.
Strangely, Spieth is not the top choice for oddsmakers.
The top choice is three majors away from getting the job done.
| Golfer | Majors Needed | Odds | Percentage Chance |
| Scottie Scheffler | 3 | +350 | 22.2% |
| Jordan Spieth | 1 | +550 | 15.4% |
| Xander Schauffele | 2 | +700 | 12.5% |
| Collin Morikawa | 2 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Jon Rahm | 2 | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3 | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Brooks Koepka | 2 | +1250 | 7.4% |
| Phil Mickelson | 1 | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Justin Thomas | 3 | +1750 | 5.4% |
| Someone Else | +2000 | 4.8% |
It’s pretty crazy that Scheffler has the best odds while being three majors away. He’s only 28 years old and a few years younger than others on this list but winning three different majors is a massive mountain to climb.
I wouldn’t bet against him but +350 is a wild price for something like that. And 22 percent is a generous probability. Only two guys have done this since 1966!
I’ve been on record as saying I don’t think Spieth will win the PGA Championship, an event that isn’t set up for someone who is wobbly with the driver. Maybe he gets another major but I think he’s better off at the Open Championship. Also, he’s won twice on the PGA Tour in the past seven years. His prime was the first five seasons of his career. Now he’s just another guy.
I love Schauffele to have a great chance at completing it. He’s missing the U.S. Open but is constantly in contention there. And he’s come close a couple times at the Masters, the other major he is missing.
Nobody else on this list stands out as having a good shot. Koepka looks to be on the down side of his career and hasn’t played the Open Championship particularly well in his career. Mickelson is done.
The others have an awful lot of work to do to have a chance but anything is possible.
Who do you think will complete the career Grand Slam in the next 15-20 years? One guy, two guys, three guys or more? What if none of them does it?
Let me know below in the comments.
Pat
1 month ago
Scheffler feels like a lock as long as he doesn’t sustain a major injury that really sets him back. He’s just that good and that capable. Schauffele has the all around game to be right there a lot and win a few more majors. If it is the right two he could certainly get it done. I do hope for Spieth to get another major at some point as he gets back to being fully healthy but he wasn’t playing all that great before — and look who he’d have to beat. I have serious doubt he will ever win a PGA. Nobody else makes the list right now. Another good question is how many more majors Rory can win.