For each PGA Tour event, we’ll rank the top 10 players in likelihood of winning based on a weighted model, form and course fit. Along the way, we will highlight some of our favorite bets.
This week, the Tour heads to New York for the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills on Long Island.
This Week: U.S. Open
- Date: June 18-21, 2026
- Location: Southampton, New York
- Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
- How to watch: NBC, USA, Peacock
- Purse: $21,500,000
- Defending champ: J.J. Spaun
Which skills the course rewards
Shinnecock Hills was designed by William Flynn in 1931 and will play as a par 70 at more than 7,400 yards for this year’s U.S. Open. Famously one of the greatest and most difficult courses in the world, Shinnecock has hosted five U.S. Opens and never seen a winning score higher than 4-under.
We see many courses claim the title of an “American Links” course, but Shinnecock Hills is perhaps the greatest embodiment of it, especially with the expected 2026 setup. Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore’s 2013 renovation brought back many of those American Links elements, but the USGA arguably messed it all up in the 2018 U.S. Open. It was the tournament most known for Phil Mickelson hitting his ball while it was still moving and Zach Johnson confessing in an interview that the USGA had completely lost the course. Nobody broke par as Brooks Koepka took home his second U.S. Open with a winning score of 1-over.
It seems the USGA may have learned from its mistakes this year. The fairways are playing much wider (in line with the original renovation), and the greens have been reported as receptive and slower on Monday as the area expects high winds and firm conditions throughout the week.
The wider fairways at Shinnecock should help open the tournament to more players. The rough at Shinnecock is not graduated, meaning a yard off the fairway can lead to a disastrous lie. Meanwhile, some of the fescue and trampled down rough 30 yards off the fairway can be playable. I’m expecting total driving and complete drivers of the ball will again have a huge advantage this week.
If the winds are as high as expected, iron play may be harder to predict. Many greens will be missed, and some of the usual best iron players could struggle to flight their ball and find greens at Shinnecock. I’m looking for players who can flight their ball well and find greens on tough, windy courses as the best options for approach play.
Up at the green, Shinnecock plays more like Augusta than a usual U.S. Open course. There is a lot of short grass around the greens here, and the massive complexes are often heavily tiered, much like we saw in April. Creative scramblers (think Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth) will likely enjoy their time around these greens instead of many U.S. Opens where the best scramblers are those who can hack it out of the rough the best.
The greens are a mix of Bent and Poa. With how tough conditions are expected to be with high winds, I expect putting to be very volatile and wouldn’t recommend trying to predict who will get hot with the putter too much.
How the model works
The weighted model this week over the last 24 rounds is 20% SG: Off the Tee, 15% SG: Approach, 15% Greens in Regulations %, 15% SG: Around the Green, 10% SG: Total (Windy/Difficult), 10% SG: Putting (Bent/Poa), 10% Bogey Avoidance, and 5% Scrambling (Short Grass).
Power rankings
(DraftKings odds—winner/top 5/top 10 with favorite picks in bold)
10. Justin Rose (+5300, +830, +380)
Model rank: 19th
Struggled to pick the final spot here, as Ludvig Aberg, J.J. Spaun and Tyrrell Hatton were all strongly considered, but it’s Rose that makes the most sense to me. The veteran seems to always bring his best for majors, and a tough and tricky Shinnecock Hills should be right up his alley when simply needing to produce pars. Ranks 19th in SG: P.
9. Bryson DeChambeau (+2900, +560, +270)
Model rank: 17th
DeChambeau will surely figure something out this week after missing the cut at the Masters and the PGA. He’s still played fine golf on LIV this year, but the irons and short game were disastrous at the majors. Shinnecock should fit him a bit better and could possibly be bomb-and-gouged as he’d prefer. Ranks 1st in SG: OTT.
8. Patrick Reed (+4900, +760, +350)
Model rank: 14th
Reed has quietly been T12 and T10 in the year’s first two majors, and he unsurprisingly played well at Shinnecock in 2018 when he finished 4th. It feels like Reed checks all of the boxes of what you want this week if things get really tough. If he can find some greens, he might be dangerous. The only complaint here is that Reed hasn’t played any non-major tournaments since early March. Ranks 6th in SG: ARG.
7. Tommy Fleetwood (+2400, +410, +198)
Model rank: 9th
The runner-up at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock, Fleetwood has gone from an up-and-comer at that point to steadily one of the top players in the world now. But he still hasn’t gotten that major championship. After a disappointing first two majors, Fleetwood has found some nice form in his last two starts and should have a great chance to be a factor. Ranks 7th in bogey avoidance.
6. Xander Schauffele (+1700, +315, +154)
Model rank: 8th
I’m still fairly uninspired by Schauffele’s form and play in 2026, but it’s impossible to ignore his overall U.S. Open form. He’s never been worse than T14 at a U.S. Open in nine tries, including seven top 10’s. One of those was a T6 at Shinnecock when he was 24 years old. This type of tournament clearly fits Schauffele, but I’m struggling to see that winning upside in his current play. Ranks 8th in SG: OTT.
5. Rory McIlroy (+970, +205, +105)
Model rank: 2nd
Much like 2025 when Rory won the Masters, he hasn’t had his best stuff since winning again in Augusta in April. He missed the cut here in 2018, but following that year, he tallied six consecutive top 10’s at U.S. Opens, including a pair of runner-ups in ’23 and ’24. He likely would have been 2nd or 3rd for me if it weren’t for the projected firm and windy conditions. Ranks 2nd in SG: OTT.
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (+2150, +375, +182)
Model rank: 7th
Fitzpatrick importantly got back on track last week in Canada by finishing runner-up It followed an uneven stretch after winning in Harbour Town, with his driver and putter abandoning him a bit. Fitzpatrick has enjoyed the U.S. Open, winning the title in 2022 and adding a T12 here at Shinnecock in 2018. Tough conditions should suit him well. Ranks 12th in SG: APP.
3. Cameron Young (+2050, +375, +186)
Model rank: 5th
Young has had a healthy amount of time off since the PGA Championship, playing only once at Memorial. He didn’t play well at Muirfield Village, which scares me a bit on his overall form, but he’s been so good all year, Shinnecock feels like the perfect fit for him to get his first major. This will be like a home game for the New Yorker, and he should have a great shot if he scrambles well. Ranks 13th in SG: OTT.
2. Jon Rahm (+1050, +215, +108)
Model rank: 4th
Despite not winning, Rahm’s T2 at the PGA was a huge step for him after a couple of years of disappointing play in major championships. His form on LIV has also been superb, which should have Rahm feeling very comfortable as he tries to win a second U.S. Open. He did miss the cut here in 2018, but since then has become much stronger on brutally tough courses like Shinnecock. Ranks 10th in SG: OTT.
1. Scottie Scheffler (+465, +106, -182)
Model rank: 1st
It somehow feels like Scheffler is being underrated going into his first opportunity at a career Grand Slam. Much of it surely has to do with some uncharacteristic poor play and even a poor attitude on the course, but if there’s one thing I know about the world No. 1, it’s that he often brings his best stuff right when anyone begins to doubt him. Shinnecock should be an ideal fit for Scheffler, especially if the wind blows, and he’s still hitting it better than anyone as of late. Ranks 1st in SG: APP.
Top Photo Caption: Scottie Scheffler tees off during a practice round at Shinnecock. (GETTY IMAGES/Andrew Redington)
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