A few weeks ago, we wrote about the one shot we think will help you shoot lower scores. Today, we’re going to build on that with some additional data that will hopefully convince you to stop trying to lay up to a preferred distance and, instead, try and hit the ball as close to the green as you sensibly can.
Let’s start with this. At some point in every round of golf, you’ll find yourself in a position where you won’t be able to reach the green.
What should you do?
To help us answer the question, Shot Scope has pulled some approach play data.
Before we dig into the answers, it’s important to mention that while many golfers believe they can (and should) lay up to a preferred yardage, that thinking is, at best, a concept of a plan.
The data below suggests that golfers, presumably swinging the shortest clubs in their bags, are less than perfect when it comes to putting the ball absolutely anywhere on the putting surface. Yet, many golfers believe they can lay up to their happy number with Tiger-like precision before dropping it close to the flag on the next shot.
Pervasive as that thinking may be, it’s not a particularly good strategy for two basic reasons:
- Average golfers can’t reliably hit the ball to a preferred number.
- Even if you could, on-course data still strongly suggests that closer is better.
It’s not lost on me that many believe a full swing from 100 yards provides a better opportunity to score than a partial swing from a so-called “awkward” distance but that thinking isn’t supported by Shot Scope’s on-course data.
From the chart above, we can see all of the handicap benchmarks have a good to excellent chance of hitting the green from 50-75 yards.
Despite being inside many golfers’ preferred full swing distance, even higher handicappers still hit almost 50 percent of greens. Frankly, I like everyone’s odds from this range.
Notably, even from this relatively short distance, the most common miss is short. While we know many golfers have a tendency to under-club, in this case, the short miss is more likely attributable to issues with the strike.
So, yeah, we know golfers struggle with partial wedge shots. You probably know a guy who bombs his drive and then fats his wedge. We’re not saying those struggles aren’t real. The point is that, even with allowances for those issues, the closer you are to the green, the better your chance of hitting it (even if you don’t love the partial swing).
It’s also worth pointing out that proximity to the flag from this distance, even for the scratch player, is perhaps not as close as you may think. The best golfers in the Shot Scope database average 27 feet from the flag. Flashing back to our piece on partial wedge shots, if you are able to hit it inside the average distances for your handicap, you will gain strokes on your cohort.
Now, let’s take a look at what happens when we drop back to 75-100 yards.
The quick takeaway is this: the small move back reduces every golfer’s chances of hitting the green compared to the 25-50 yard shot. Sure, it’s less costly for better players but in a game of margins, don’t you want the best odds of finding the putting surface?
For the mid to high handicapper (15 and above), the chance of hitting the green drops by around 10 percent. For 25 handicappers, the drop is even bigger still, going from roughly a 1-in-2 chance to 1-in-3.
In terms of proximity to the pin, we can see that every handicap will be putting from farther away and that’s assuming they find the green.
Every foot counts when it comes to putting and, as with the theme of this article, closer is better. Sure, the odds aren’t great that you’ll hole a 20-foot putt but they’re better than they are from 30 feet. It’s also worth noting that the closer your first putt is to the flag, the less likely you are to three-putt.
Use your head
To be sure, there are times when playing aggressively doesn’t make sense but those situations almost invariably involve water carries, waste areas or other particularly penal hazards.
As with most things in golf, it’s important to use your head but, in the majority of cases, what’s often thought of as playing aggressively – trying to get closer to the green, whether it be club selection off a tee box or not laying up to that mythical preferred distance – isn’t actually aggressive. It’s smart golf.
You’re not only maximizing your chances of finding the putting surface but you’re shortening that first putt distance as well.
Get dialed in
Getting your distances dialed in is a key component of lowering scores and knowing how far you have for your shot is made easy with Shot Scope’s performance tracking products where you’ll enjoy subscription-free access to more than 100 Tour-level data insights.
Whether you prefer a GPS watch, or a laser rangefinder, Shot Scope has something to suit every golfer’s needs on the course.
The takeaway message is that if you have to lay up, forget about an ideal number and focus on getting as close to the green as you sensibly can.
Golf smarter, people.
Shot Scope is the Official On-Course Data Partner of MyGolfSpy.
Andrew Singleton
3 months ago
Where are these mythical par 5s that have no danger from 30-75 yards from the green?