Five U.S. Open Favorites Who Won’t Win This Week

I tried this kind of story for the Masters and was burned by Rory McIlroy defending his Masters title to pick up a second green jacket.

Never mind. I am back for more punishment this week as we head to venerable Shinnecock Hills for the U.S. Open.

I’ve learned my lesson with doubting guys like McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler—but there are still a handful of favorites within the top 10 who I am confident won’t win this week.

Here are the five guys near the top of the odds sheet that won’t win on Long Island.

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)

Sitting around sixth on the favorites sheet depending on where you look, DeChambeau is still considered a primary threat to grab another major. He won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot and the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst so the pedigree is there.

This will be a very different test this week. You can expect plenty of wind at Shinnecock. You can expect plenty of awkward short-game shots from closely mown areas. I’m not hearing Bryson’s music based on those two factors.

Maybe even more than that is how bad DeChambeau has looked at the year’s first two majors. He missed the cut at the Masters and PGA Championship, seeming totally discombobulated the whole way through. He’s down to No. 20 in Data Golf.

It’s fair to ask whether LIV’s downfall has become a distraction for Bryson as he is trying to figure out his future and why he plays golf in the first place. It feels like he is more focused on content creation than competitive golf right now.

2. Ludvig Aberg (+2000)

We may have crowned Aberg a little early.

He’s a tremendous talent and among the top players in the game (No. 7 in Data Golf) but has fallen short of expectations in terms of winning. His last win came in February 2025 despite having a dozen or more chances to win.

Aberg has put himself in position on Sundays but continues to fall short, including at the Players Championship where he fell apart early on the back nine to kick away a huge title.

I have no doubt Aberg can get himself involved in the tournament—and I am a huge fan of his—but he hasn’t given me reason to believe he can walk away with a major championship title.

3. Xander Schauffele (+1600)

No. 4 on the odds sheet, Schauffele is a fantastic U.S. Open player. His career results are: T5, T6, T3, 5, T7, T14, T10, T7, T12. Wow! Not a single finish outside the top 15 in nine U.S. Opens. That is seriously impressive.

But we’re not talking about top-10 bets here—we’re talking about winning the golf tournament which I don’t think Schauffele will do.

Schauffele hasn’t really come close to winning a tournament this year. And as I mention with Brooks Koepka in a moment, it seems like he isn’t in that top form we saw from 2024. He is still getting back to that level after an injury-plagued 2025.

I’m sure Schauffele’s name will be involved but I don’t have faith that this is his week.

4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)

Fleetwood is No. 5 on the odds sheet. It’s for good reason, given his consistently strong play and the fact he almost won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock when he shot 63 in the final round to nearly track down Koepka.

Still, I remain a little stuck with the affable Englishman.

He won the Tour Championship a year ago to break the ice on winning a PGA Tour event but I am skeptical about his ability to win a major. His Masters (T33) and PGA (MC) performances were lacking. Fleetwood has gone nine consecutive majors without a top-10 result.

It just seems like a pretty large leap for him to come alive and win this week.

5. Brooks Koepka (+2200)

The aforementioned Koepka had the grittiest performance of his career eight years ago when he won at Shinnecock. The indelible image from that week is how Brooks salvaged bogey on the short par-3 11th by intentionally chipping into a bunker and then getting up and down from there.

I appreciate Koepka’s history and ability to prove everyone wrong but quite a few years have passed since he was that guy.

This current version of Brooks is still working his way back into the mix. He only has one top-10 finish this year (a T9 at the Cognizant) and hasn’t shown that top-end ability in at least two years.

I am bullish on Koepka coming back into form—his Strokes Gained trajectory is promising—but I think his history is doing a lot of heavy lifting on making him a top-10 favorite this week.

Who do you like this week? Who won’t win?

Let me know in the comments.