Shinnecock Hills has been the site of some of the most memorable U.S. Opens, though not always for the best reasons.
You may remember the third round in 2018.
In firm, windy conditions, the Shinnecock greens baked out and were very close to being unplayable as the afternoon went on. Phil Mickelson famously hit his ball while it was moving on the 13th green to avoid it rolling off the surface. He went on to shoot 81 on a day where the scoring average was 75.3 (+5.3). Zach Johnson made headlines in a post-round interview where he said that the USGA had “lost the course.”
Brooks Koepka won the tournament with a score of 1-over.
And back in 2004, the USGA was heavily scrutinized for their setup—particularly at the par-3 7th where the green became so fast that Mickelson and others purposely played into the green side bunker since holding the green off the tee wasn’t much of an option. During the final round, 28 golfers couldn’t break 80. The average score was 78.7 (that is not a typo).
Of the four U.S. Opens at Shinnecock since 1986, only three players—Retief Goosen, Mickelson and Raymond Floyd—have broken par for the tournament. This is definitely one of the hardest U.S. Open courses, if not the hardest.
So what should we expect from Shinnecock this time around?
At first glance, things look easier.
Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore renovated Shinnecock in 2013 to expand the greens back to their intended sizes and restore some of the width to the fairways. But the USGA negated some of that width for the 2018 U.S. Open. The fairways were narrowed extensively, which created a tougher and, in my opinion, more boring U.S. Open.
The fairways are now cut back to Crenshaw and Coore’s intention for this week’s U.S. Open—about 48 yards wide on average—which should allow for more fairways to be hit and more strategy to be used from players looking for better angles into these treacherous greens.
I love this change, as overly narrow fairways at U.S. Opens can often become monotonous. Shinnecock is considered one of the best courses on the planet in large part because of its green complexes. Those greens aren’t highlighted if many of the approach shots are hacked out of heavy rough.
Not to mention, while many people believe narrow fairways hurt bombers and allow shorter drivers to contend, it’s often the opposite. When the fairways are too narrow, it causes even accurate drivers to miss off the tee, which in effect incentivizes the longest hitters to be even more aggressive and look to have wedges in their hand that can even handle the thick rough. We saw that in full effect at Winged Foot when Bryson DeChambeau beat Matthew Wolff.
But while the wider fairways and reportedly softer and slower greens should make Shinnecock play easier this week, Mother Nature has a different idea.
The forecast for Southampton, New York, this week looks superb. But it also looks to really test the USGA on how it sets up the course. Winds are expected to remain above 20 mph throughout Thursday, with gusts up to 40 mph. Gusts look like they will be comfortably above 20 mph on Friday and Saturday, before Sunday calms down for what could be an exciting final round with lower scores.
No rain is expected, which means conditions could become extremely firm with the high winds.
The expectation is that the USGA will water the course around midday each round, a point which players like Rory McIlroy chimed in on during a Tuesday press conference (McIlroy pointed out that the practice of watering greens during the day is common practice at Shinnecock for member play).
Ultimately, we expect the USGA to be very careful with Shinnecock. Green speeds are going to be kept slower, especially in anticipation of the high winds.
“We could brutalize this place the next few days if we wanted to,” the USGA’s John Bodenhamer said. “That’s not what we’re about. We really want it to be fair, and we want it to be what Shinnecock Hills has always been. It will be tough enough. We have pulled every lever that we can to make it fair, and I think that’s a message we really want to get out there.”
Despite that, Shinnecock could still play diabolically tough with these winds. The green complexes are very severe, and it’s a completely exposed course that will feel all of the elements, especially on some of the more elevated green complexes.
Where the USGA will have to be careful
The 10th and 11th greens are already getting some headlines.
The par-3 11th is the shortest hole on the course, but it’s also one of the most exposed with an upside-down-bowl-shaped green. Practice round videos have already shown slow-rolling balls trickling all the way off the green on putts and chips.
And the aforementioned par-3 7th redan design could also be nearly unplayable once again in high winds, especially if the wind is coming out of the south and even well-played pitch shots aren’t holding.
The USGA will also have to be careful when choosing the tee box on some of the longer par 4s that could play into the wind and be nearly unreachable in two shots.
We have the course and forecast available for an all-timer this week at Shinnecock—but, just like 2018, there will be a very tough line for the USGA not to cross with the setup.
My hope is that the USGA lets the course be the star this week. Keep some water in the greens and don’t cut them too low. The conditions and elements will test the players plenty, and we don’t need to see the memorable highlight be someone hitting a rolling ball.
If the current wind forecast stays true, I would be surprised if someone breaks par for the tournament.
What do you think the winning score will be? Let me know below in the comments.
Top Photo Caption: There will be plenty of water being added to greens this week. (GETTY IMAGES/Warren Little)
mg
53 minutes ago
I would lime to see Shinnecock be the star at level par.