To quote Katy Perry, these bets are “comin’ at you like a dark horse.”
When U.S. Open odds drop, it’s easy to pick the usuals—Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau. But many years, a name outside that tier breaks through and surprises us all. Aaron Rai did just that a couple of weeks ago and J.J. Spaun won the U.S. Open last year at Oakmont.
This week, we’re targeting a blend of elite ball-strikers and solid putters who can get hot at the right time. The perfect recipe for Shinnecock is elite ball striking, high GIR percentage and above average putting.
As usual, be an adult and bet responsibly.
Odds/lines cited from Bet365.
1. Brooks Koepka to win (+4500)
Who won the last U.S. Open held at Shinnecock Hills?
Brooks Koepka.
At +4500, he may not look like a traditional “dark horse”—but turning a $10 bet into $450 still feels like strong dark horse value in a field this stacked.
Koepka’s iron play is trending in the right direction, currently ranking top-5 in approach. The putter has still been the issue, sitting outside the top 100 in Strokes Gained: Putting.
The only other thing to watch is potential injury. He withdrew from the RBC Canadian last week due to a hand injury, so it’s worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to Thursday’s opening tee times.
If Brooks can get the putter even slightly hot, he’ll be a legitimate threat for his third U.S. Open title.
2. Johnny Keefer for a top-30 finish (+333)
Johnny Keefer is another guy who could contend this week if the putter gets hot. He might even contend if it just gets lukewarm.
He ranks highly in GIR percentage, proximity to the hole, approach and total driving, but is outside the top-150 in putting. If his proximity game is dialed at Shinnecock, he’ll have a much easier time navigating these greens.
3. Four-pick parlay to make the cut (+240)
If you’re looking for something a bit more predictable, a “to make the cut” parlay is the way to go.
I’ve compiled five names I feel confident about getting to Saturday and Sunday:
Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sam Burns
When you combine these, you’re looking at roughly +240 odds ($10 bet wins $34).
Sam Burns last five starts: T20, T4, T26, T37, and T38.
Si Woo Kim last five starts: T10, 2, T35, T65, and T4.
Xander Schauffele last five starts: T29, T7, T60, T12, and T9.
Matt Fitzpatrick last five starts: 2, T36, T14, T52, and 1.
If you throw Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in there, you end up at about +375 odds. As the saying goes, pressure does make diamonds—and I’ll be staking my hard-earned cheddar on this play.
4. Lowest tournament round being under 65 (+500)
I’m betting we see a 64 or better at some point this week.
We’ve seen it at Augusta, we saw it a couple weeks ago at the PGA Championship, and Tommy Fleetwood carded a 63 the last time the U.S. Open was played at Shinnecock.
It doesn’t take a perfect tournament to cash this, just one player getting hot for 18 holes.
Think of it as a bet that’ll keep you engaged the whole week.
Golf betting tips and tricks
I’m not an expert, but I’ve won a few hundred dollars betting on the PGA Tour this year.
Most of those wins have come from mid-tournament plays. For example, I picked Akshay Bhatia to win earlier this year, doing so late in the tournament. He ended up closing it out, and I turned $15 into $150 and bought a new TV.
Don’t be afraid to wait until the first or second round is complete before placing any bets. It gives you a much clearer picture of how the course is playing, who’s actually in form, and how the weather forecast is shaping up for Saturday and Sunday.
The last (and most important) tip:
DON’T BE AFRAID TO CASH OUT EARLY.
Some people like to let it ride, others prefer a guaranteed payout. Most sportsbooks now offer cash-out options when your bet is live, especially if your parlay is looking good.
If your dark horse is sitting near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday, don’t be afraid to take the guaranteed money.
We’ve seen it happen repeatedly this year—players with a lead on Sunday getting chased down and overtaken late. There’s no shame in locking in a dub.
Good luck, and may we all win big this week.
Top Photo Caption: Shinnecock Hills is the host for this week’s U.S. Open. (GETTY IMAGES/Warren Little)
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