If we had a similar childhood, you probably remember seeing a big jar of marbles (or candy) and guessing the total amount to win a prize.
Big Cedar Golf, home to six bucket-list courses in Missouri, is giving you the chance to do something similar. The prize? A free foursome at Payne’s Valley (roughly $1,200 value).
Big Cedar Golf tallied up the number of balls sent directly into the drink on the infamous 19th hole at Payne’s Valley over a 12-month period and they’re giving you the chance to be the closest guess that will ultimately take home the free foursome.
Entries close on Oct. 8 and you can click the button below to submit your guess.
Tips for guessing
With the help of AI, I tallied up the following rough estimates to help with your guess.
- We can assume that there are more than 20,000 rounds played at Payne’s Valley each year but fewer than 40,000. If you want to do your own calculations, set the number of rounds played somewhere in this range.
- Using Shot Scope data for 100-yard approach shots, the average probability of splashing it into the water across scratch to 25-handicap golfers is 46.2 percent. Since the 19th hole at Payne’s Valley can play longer than 100 yards depending on the tee, you may want to adjust that percentage upward based on your own intuition.
- For my final thoughts, I’ll set the science aside. As someone who occasionally hits a second ball on par-3s, I’d guess that roughly 25 percent of golfers sneak in a second shot on the 19th. If that’s right, it adds somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 shots to the total. Applying the same 46.2-percent splash rate, that’s an additional 2,310 to 4,620 balls in the water.
If you want to math it out, these numbers should help point you in the right direction.
I already guessed 19,487 (so don’t guess that) unless you want to lose to the Jedi Master himself.
Good luck!
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